Economist
Oliver’s insights – Australia’s falling living standards – what’s driving it and how to fix it
19 December
Key points – Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments have led to a slump in Australian living standards. – But a broader driver of the malaise in living standards has been a slump in productivity growth from over 2% pa in...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Goldilocks stayed for 2024, but what’s in store for investors in 2025?
12 December
Key points – The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Trump 2.0: Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared
21 November
Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Five ways to turn down the noise, stay focussed (and survive Trump)
14 November
Key points – A surge in financial information and opinion along with our natural inclination to focus on bad news is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful and short-term focussed. – Five ways to help manage the noise and stay...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Donald Trump elected President of the US (again). Implications for investors and Australia
13 November
Key points – The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes and trade wars and policy uncertainty. – His win was not the surprise it was in 2016, and markets...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Why value matters in investing – and what are valuations telling us now?
31 October
Key points – Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns. – Valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds have improved. For shares they suggest...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights China’s big stimulus – will it work? And what does it mean for Australia?
17 October
Key points – A move towards more aggressive fiscal policy stimulus and property support measures should help drive a mild cyclical upswing in China’s economy. – However, it’s doubtful it will be enough to reverse longer term structural...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Nine bad habits of ineffective investors: common mistakes investors make
24 October
Key points – Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. – As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. – The easiest way to avoid many of...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Harris versus Trump – implications for investors and Australia
10 October
Key points – The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same, but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade. – Australia would be vulnerable to a rapid...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Shares around record highs as inflation slides – but what are the risks?
3 October
Key points – Recession risks, the escalating Israel conflict, the US election along with still stretched valuations mean a high risk of another share market correction and continued volatility. – The expansion of the war around Israel and Iran...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Will house prices crash? And what’s needed to fix housing affordability
29 August
Key points – Predictions of an Australian house price crash create lots of interest but have been a dime a dozen over the last 20 yrs. – However, there is more to the surge in property prices than easy money with a supply shortfall being the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Why super and growth assets like shares really are long term investments
22 August
Key points – While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds and cash, they provide superior long-term returns. So, it makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. – The best approach...[Read More]